Barack Obama is leaving nothing to chance these days. He's often critizized for being all hat and no cattle , in other words all talk and no action. But so far in Texas his team is running a campaign that is talking the talk and walking the walk too . This state has become a perfect illustration of how Obama's ability to raise enormous amounts of money has altered the race. Obama's team has bought some 5.3 million dollars worth of paid tv time in Texas . Clinton by comparison has spent about 2.7 million . That means for every 2 Obama commercials you see on tv or hear on the radio you hear 1 for Clinton. Obama's money has also paid off in other ways. For example , whenever Obama gives a speech his campaign pays for huge tour buses to transport voters directly from the event to the polls where in Texas , you can vote early . Obama is consistently drawing 15,000 to 20,000 crowds . If even a third of them leave his events and then go straight to the polls , that could dramatically affect a close race . As a result , Clinton who's lead in Texas was in double digits , TWO WEEKS AGO, has now seen Obama take the lead in most polls.
Here's my prediction for tuesday . Obama will win Texas . He will also win a late breaking photo finish in Ohio. I believe Clinton will lead Ohio for most of the night , but the cities like Cleveland , Cincinnati and Columbus will give Obama a late win , much like St. Louis and Kansas City won Missouri late for Obama on super tuesday. I could be wrong about Ohio , after all she still leads narrowly in the polls , but Texas is now Obama country .
Here's the worse case scenario for Obama at this point. Clinton ekes out a win in Texas and carries Ohio by 5-10 points . Obama would still have a 100+ lead in pleged delegates . After that the race goes to Wyoming which is a caucas state . Obama consistently dominates caucas states because he has more commited supporters . Next up is Mississippi which is 40+ percent black . Obama is expected to win there by a huge margin . Both states should pad Obama's delegate lead and increase pressure on Clinton to exit the race.
So in other words , even in the worse case scenario at this point , Obama is still the likely nominee . Pretty soon , expect to see the heavyweights in the Democratic party start to get behind Obama . People like Bill Richardson and John Edwards . Also look for Al Gore , Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. If any one of these people make a move for Obama in the coming weeks take it as a sign that Obama has seized the establishment . However If he wins Texas or Ohio , the end will come swiftly. A delegation of high ranking democrats maybe even her husband the President , will sit Hillary down and convince her to surrender for the good of the party . I predict Obama will beat expectations , win both states , and force Hillary's hand.
Here's my prediction for tuesday . Obama will win Texas . He will also win a late breaking photo finish in Ohio. I believe Clinton will lead Ohio for most of the night , but the cities like Cleveland , Cincinnati and Columbus will give Obama a late win , much like St. Louis and Kansas City won Missouri late for Obama on super tuesday. I could be wrong about Ohio , after all she still leads narrowly in the polls , but Texas is now Obama country .
Here's the worse case scenario for Obama at this point. Clinton ekes out a win in Texas and carries Ohio by 5-10 points . Obama would still have a 100+ lead in pleged delegates . After that the race goes to Wyoming which is a caucas state . Obama consistently dominates caucas states because he has more commited supporters . Next up is Mississippi which is 40+ percent black . Obama is expected to win there by a huge margin . Both states should pad Obama's delegate lead and increase pressure on Clinton to exit the race.
So in other words , even in the worse case scenario at this point , Obama is still the likely nominee . Pretty soon , expect to see the heavyweights in the Democratic party start to get behind Obama . People like Bill Richardson and John Edwards . Also look for Al Gore , Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. If any one of these people make a move for Obama in the coming weeks take it as a sign that Obama has seized the establishment . However If he wins Texas or Ohio , the end will come swiftly. A delegation of high ranking democrats maybe even her husband the President , will sit Hillary down and convince her to surrender for the good of the party . I predict Obama will beat expectations , win both states , and force Hillary's hand.
