Obama storms Texas , eyes nomination.

Barack Obama is leaving nothing to chance these days. He's often critizized for being all hat and no cattle , in other words all talk and no action. But so far in Texas his team is running a campaign that is talking the talk and walking the walk too . This state has become a perfect illustration of how Obama's ability to raise enormous amounts of money has altered the race. Obama's team has bought some 5.3 million dollars worth of paid tv time in Texas . Clinton by comparison has spent about 2.7 million . That means for every 2 Obama commercials you see on tv or hear on the radio you hear 1 for Clinton. Obama's money has also paid off in other ways. For example , whenever Obama gives a speech his campaign pays for huge tour buses to transport voters directly from the event to the polls where in Texas , you can vote early . Obama is consistently drawing 15,000 to 20,000 crowds . If even a third of them leave his events and then go straight to the polls , that could dramatically affect a close race . As a result , Clinton who's lead in Texas was in double digits , TWO WEEKS AGO, has now seen Obama take the lead in most polls.
Here's my prediction for tuesday . Obama will win Texas . He will also win a late breaking photo finish in Ohio. I believe Clinton will lead Ohio for most of the night , but the cities like Cleveland , Cincinnati and Columbus will give Obama a late win , much like St. Louis and Kansas City won Missouri late for Obama on super tuesday. I could be wrong about Ohio , after all she still leads narrowly in the polls , but Texas is now Obama country .
Here's the worse case scenario for Obama at this point. Clinton ekes out a win in Texas and carries Ohio by 5-10 points . Obama would still have a 100+ lead in pleged delegates . After that the race goes to Wyoming which is a caucas state . Obama consistently dominates caucas states because he has more commited supporters . Next up is Mississippi which is 40+ percent black . Obama is expected to win there by a huge margin . Both states should pad Obama's delegate lead and increase pressure on Clinton to exit the race.
So in other words , even in the worse case scenario at this point , Obama is still the likely nominee . Pretty soon , expect to see the heavyweights in the Democratic party start to get behind Obama . People like Bill Richardson and John Edwards . Also look for Al Gore , Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. If any one of these people make a move for Obama in the coming weeks take it as a sign that Obama has seized the establishment . However If he wins Texas or Ohio , the end will come swiftly. A delegation of high ranking democrats maybe even her husband the President , will sit Hillary down and convince her to surrender for the good of the party . I predict Obama will beat expectations , win both states , and force Hillary's hand.

New video : Leaders

Its the management stupid !

Perhaps George W. Bush's greatest failure is his disinterest in management. The self-styled M.B.A. president has fingerprints on some of the greatest management failures in history. From the debacle in Iraq to the criminal mismanagement of the tragedy in New Orleans. Bush's management skills have failed us in ways large and small.
Thats why the fact that Hillary Clinton had to loan her campaign 5 million dollars troubles me. Given that her campaign reported raising over 100 million in 2007 , the fact that she is now essentially broke raises questions about her management skills. A presidential campaign is essentially a fortune 500 company where the candidate serves as the C.E.O. The modern presidential campaign budget is bigger than the G.N.P of some small countries. If a private company took in 100 million plus in revenues and ended up with 5 million dollars in debt two months later , the stock would plummet , shareholders would grumble and the CEO would likely be unemployed.
Management skills , as we have seen vividly the last 8 years , are important. Hillary Clinton's management has been found wanting in several other areas as well. Her inability to control a key asset , Bill Clinton , has damaged her standing with a wide swath of the voters. Her campaign surrogates repeated apologies for various non authorized statements further reflect her lack of management of persons associated with her campaign. She has repeatedly cited her 35 years of experience in why we should consider her for the top job in the world, but all her years of experience has failed her when it comes to the day to day running of her campaign.

If you can't run your campaign , How can you run the country ?

The Billary Factor

Once again Billary Clinton has shown herself to be a arrogant bully who will do anything to force herself down the throat of the American people so he can regain power. What has Hillary Clinton done to deserve being president ? Because she served as a first lady for 8 years ? Does anybody out there really think Laura Bush is qualified to run the country right now ? She served two more years in the Senate than did Obama . BIG DEAL. With all her so called " experience" the only thing she accomplished in the Senate was her epic rollover to Bush on the Iraq war. What major bills has she put through ? What major policy shift by the administration did she force ? None whatsoever.
Look ahead to November . The Republican attack machine is going to rip her apart ! Obama is such a nice guy he won't dare use some of the attacks that are gonna come her way. They will force the election to be a referedum on the 90's. We will be relentlessly subjected to debates that drag on about how Vince Foster died , whether or not Billary took furniture and other things from the White House when they left , and just what is the meaning of is . The republicans will trash her experience as " tea with other wives of heads of state " that will deride Bill Clinton presidency and shout to the mountaintops that the Clintons will bring shame back to the White House in a way that only Bill Can.
Bill Clinton was a good president. But the baggage that will come from the two of them will doom the Democrats in November. No matter how much the Republicans have screwed up the fact remains that half of the country hates Billary . Put her smiling mug at the top of the ticket and the Republicans will turn out in droves to vote against her , putting everyone on the ticket in peril .
Lets say you're a member of congress. Would you want someone with 47% negatives at the top of the ticket ? Or do you want someone who might actually bring people over from the republicans side to vote for you ? Are the American people gonna lay down and get run by a dynasty ? Or will we opt for a fresh face to clean up the mess in Washington. A mess that is part and parcel of the Clinton legacy. Lets not let the Billary prevail.

New video : Give Peace a Chance

More lies , more money, more blood for Iraq

George W. Bush has had one goal since Iraq descended into chaos 4 years ago : leave office without losing the war. To that end the testimony of General David Petraus has been brilliant. Petreaus , the picture of leadership and competence facing senators in full uniform with a chest full of medals , delivered a simple message to senators and to the country : stay the course.
Nevermind that 70% of the American people oppose this war and have for at least the last two years. Nevermind that the 2006 election was a clear message demanding a new course in Iraq . The fact is no one in the White House cares what you think. This is no longer a country ruled by the people and hasn't been for a long time. There are bigger issues at stake here. Like the fact that Halliburton and Bechtel amoung others have made billions of dollars off this war. Like the fact that Iraq remains the home of the 2nd largest reserve of oil on the planet . There is money to be made and territory to be claimed , damn the consequences.
Meanwhile , 28 troops have lost their lives in the last 6 days. Thats 28 sons , daughters , brothers , sisters , wives who have lost someone they loved forever. 28 people who would still be here today if the President cared about what the public wants . 28 people who committed no crime other than wanting to serve their country nonetheless sentenced to death in the sands of Mesopotania. 28 more people to add to the other 3700 plus that have already lost their lives. For what ? So Bush can claim that progress has been made ?
I fear we have a President that is willing to stop at nothing to keep the war going . That means that if something happens that requires another war , we will not have the troops to respond unless we take drastic action. That means the return of the draft . In other words continuing the war is in itself a threat to national security . Bush doesn't care about that either. This President only cares about continuing the war so he can dump the whole mess on the next guy. All these hearings , reports , testimony is designed to do just that. Don't think its a coincidence that Petraeus is testifiying on Sept 11. Thats part of the marketing strategy. If i sound bitter its because i believe in a simple truth. Not one more soldier should die for Bush's vanity. If that makes me a treasonist . So be it. I hate this war and I hate the people who allow it to continue. I know hate is a very strong word , but with brave americans dying every day for no reason , I can't think of any other way to put it.

Scary Larry Craig : Im staying

Larry Craig , bless his heart , he's just a married father of four who happens to be a dog lover and doggystyle lover. Senator Craig somehow believes even though he was caught in a public bathroom top tapping for sex , he can still be effective in the Senate. Doesn't he know NOBODY in the Republican party wants him there ? Can't he read the papers ? Everyday he serves in the Senate has to be worth at least a percentage point in the polls. Democrats are jumping for joy .