La' affaire Edwards : The McCain angle.

So far most of the breathless media speculation about the explosive admission by John Edwards has centered around how much damage can this do to Democrats generally and Barack Obama specifically . Pundits openly wonder " How long will it be before some reporter ask Barack Obama whether he has ever cheated on his wife ." A fair question indeed . But over here at GOP hunter we'd like to put the same question to Senator John McCain . Someone needs to ask him about his first wife Carol McCain.

After John McCain came home from Vietnam , where he was beaten and tortured for 5 years , he discovered that his wife Carol , a former beauty queen , had been badly injured in a car wreck. McCain , who's no day at the beach himself in the beauty department , told friends he found her weight gain and limping gait , " appalling."

According to an article in the Daily Mail http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1024927/The-wife-John-McCain-callously-left-behind.html McCain started cheating on his wife almost immediately . He met Cindy McCain at a cocktail party , while he was still married to Carol. He then flew all over the country to see Cindy for six months before declaring to his wife he wanted a divorce. McCain , who now runs on " family values ," cheated on his sick wife and their three kids . If that's not a parallel to the John Edwards affair , I don't know what is . The comment section is wide open . McCain supporters are welcome to lay out their case as to why this is different from what Edwards did .

Warning to the Democratic party : Deny Obama at your own peril.

Obama will prevail .
As expected , Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton won pennsylvania by a pretty good margin. That shouldn't surprise anyone given that like Ohio , Pennsylvania has a large population of old , white , largely poor people. Blue collar democrats have consistently broke for Clinton throughout this entire campaign . The reasons why vary but I suspect that the main reason is that they are mostly concerned about economic issues and feel that they did well under Bill Clinton . Hillary's campaign has tried to use this trend to suggest that Barack Obama " can't " win these voters and will lose in november because of this . I disagree. The fact is that these people are Democrats . They are not going to sign off on 4 more years of republican rule because of some aversion to Obama . Regardless of what the polls say when the choice comes down to 4 more years of Bush-McCain policy or Barack Obama , Obama will be the pick.
Clinton however faces a greater problem. If Obama finishes the primary season ahead in the popular vote, states won and delegates won , and somehow Clinton is able to steal the nomination from him , there is no way she could ever become president . The reason why is because black people will be enraged . Black people have been quietly backing the Illinois senator . For the most part you have not really seen vocal support for Obama from prominent black people . If Obama is denied the nomination that will change . States like Maryland , Virginia , New York , even California , which have large black populations could end up being contested or even lost to John McCain if black people stay home. More than that the betrayal of black people , who have been the most loyal constituency the democrats have had , could be something that is felt for generations. Politics as we know it could shift with serious consequences.
In other words that scenario would not be good for anyone. The Democratic leadership knows this , which is why I feel this scenario is unlikely . It would be like David Stern giving the championship to the team that lost in the NBA finals. Yea the guys that won it might celebrate , but there would be a whole lot of pissed off people to deal with in the aftermath.
Here's what I think will happen. Obama will demolish Clinton in North Carolina , all but erasing her big Pennsylvania win . Obama will win Oregon , South Dakota and Montana . Clinton will win Kentucky , West Virginia and Puerto Rico. Indiana is a toss up but Obama will do well there given that large swaths of Indiana are in the Chicago media market . On June 3rd the race will likely look very much like it does right now . Obama will have a commanding lead in pleged delegates . Obama will also maintain his margin in the popular vote. At that point the leaders of the party will speak. Look for Nancy Pelosi , Al Gore , Howard Dean along with the majority of the undecided superdelegates to endorse Obama and force Hillary from the race.
It won't be pretty. Obama will likely endure weeks of attacks from Clinton and the Republicans who seem to have formed a unholy alliance. But as i've said before , the alternative , which entails writing off the black vote for generations , is much much uglier.
Obama will be the nominee . Its just a matter of time.

Obama storms Texas , eyes nomination.

Barack Obama is leaving nothing to chance these days. He's often critizized for being all hat and no cattle , in other words all talk and no action. But so far in Texas his team is running a campaign that is talking the talk and walking the walk too . This state has become a perfect illustration of how Obama's ability to raise enormous amounts of money has altered the race. Obama's team has bought some 5.3 million dollars worth of paid tv time in Texas . Clinton by comparison has spent about 2.7 million . That means for every 2 Obama commercials you see on tv or hear on the radio you hear 1 for Clinton. Obama's money has also paid off in other ways. For example , whenever Obama gives a speech his campaign pays for huge tour buses to transport voters directly from the event to the polls where in Texas , you can vote early . Obama is consistently drawing 15,000 to 20,000 crowds . If even a third of them leave his events and then go straight to the polls , that could dramatically affect a close race . As a result , Clinton who's lead in Texas was in double digits , TWO WEEKS AGO, has now seen Obama take the lead in most polls.
Here's my prediction for tuesday . Obama will win Texas . He will also win a late breaking photo finish in Ohio. I believe Clinton will lead Ohio for most of the night , but the cities like Cleveland , Cincinnati and Columbus will give Obama a late win , much like St. Louis and Kansas City won Missouri late for Obama on super tuesday. I could be wrong about Ohio , after all she still leads narrowly in the polls , but Texas is now Obama country .
Here's the worse case scenario for Obama at this point. Clinton ekes out a win in Texas and carries Ohio by 5-10 points . Obama would still have a 100+ lead in pleged delegates . After that the race goes to Wyoming which is a caucas state . Obama consistently dominates caucas states because he has more commited supporters . Next up is Mississippi which is 40+ percent black . Obama is expected to win there by a huge margin . Both states should pad Obama's delegate lead and increase pressure on Clinton to exit the race.
So in other words , even in the worse case scenario at this point , Obama is still the likely nominee . Pretty soon , expect to see the heavyweights in the Democratic party start to get behind Obama . People like Bill Richardson and John Edwards . Also look for Al Gore , Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. If any one of these people make a move for Obama in the coming weeks take it as a sign that Obama has seized the establishment . However If he wins Texas or Ohio , the end will come swiftly. A delegation of high ranking democrats maybe even her husband the President , will sit Hillary down and convince her to surrender for the good of the party . I predict Obama will beat expectations , win both states , and force Hillary's hand.

New video : Leaders

Its the management stupid !

Perhaps George W. Bush's greatest failure is his disinterest in management. The self-styled M.B.A. president has fingerprints on some of the greatest management failures in history. From the debacle in Iraq to the criminal mismanagement of the tragedy in New Orleans. Bush's management skills have failed us in ways large and small.
Thats why the fact that Hillary Clinton had to loan her campaign 5 million dollars troubles me. Given that her campaign reported raising over 100 million in 2007 , the fact that she is now essentially broke raises questions about her management skills. A presidential campaign is essentially a fortune 500 company where the candidate serves as the C.E.O. The modern presidential campaign budget is bigger than the G.N.P of some small countries. If a private company took in 100 million plus in revenues and ended up with 5 million dollars in debt two months later , the stock would plummet , shareholders would grumble and the CEO would likely be unemployed.
Management skills , as we have seen vividly the last 8 years , are important. Hillary Clinton's management has been found wanting in several other areas as well. Her inability to control a key asset , Bill Clinton , has damaged her standing with a wide swath of the voters. Her campaign surrogates repeated apologies for various non authorized statements further reflect her lack of management of persons associated with her campaign. She has repeatedly cited her 35 years of experience in why we should consider her for the top job in the world, but all her years of experience has failed her when it comes to the day to day running of her campaign.

If you can't run your campaign , How can you run the country ?

The Billary Factor

Once again Billary Clinton has shown herself to be a arrogant bully who will do anything to force herself down the throat of the American people so he can regain power. What has Hillary Clinton done to deserve being president ? Because she served as a first lady for 8 years ? Does anybody out there really think Laura Bush is qualified to run the country right now ? She served two more years in the Senate than did Obama . BIG DEAL. With all her so called " experience" the only thing she accomplished in the Senate was her epic rollover to Bush on the Iraq war. What major bills has she put through ? What major policy shift by the administration did she force ? None whatsoever.
Look ahead to November . The Republican attack machine is going to rip her apart ! Obama is such a nice guy he won't dare use some of the attacks that are gonna come her way. They will force the election to be a referedum on the 90's. We will be relentlessly subjected to debates that drag on about how Vince Foster died , whether or not Billary took furniture and other things from the White House when they left , and just what is the meaning of is . The republicans will trash her experience as " tea with other wives of heads of state " that will deride Bill Clinton presidency and shout to the mountaintops that the Clintons will bring shame back to the White House in a way that only Bill Can.
Bill Clinton was a good president. But the baggage that will come from the two of them will doom the Democrats in November. No matter how much the Republicans have screwed up the fact remains that half of the country hates Billary . Put her smiling mug at the top of the ticket and the Republicans will turn out in droves to vote against her , putting everyone on the ticket in peril .
Lets say you're a member of congress. Would you want someone with 47% negatives at the top of the ticket ? Or do you want someone who might actually bring people over from the republicans side to vote for you ? Are the American people gonna lay down and get run by a dynasty ? Or will we opt for a fresh face to clean up the mess in Washington. A mess that is part and parcel of the Clinton legacy. Lets not let the Billary prevail.

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